Sofia, April 1 (BTA) - GERB's lead over the Bulgarian Socialist
Party (BSP) has increased to just over 8 points. Near the end of
 the campaign for the April 4 parliamentary elections, GERB gets
 28.1 per cent support among firm voters. The BSP remains in
second place with 19.8 per cent, but the data show a gradual
outflow of supporters.

These data come from an Alpha Research poll at the end of the
election campaign, published on Thursday. The survey was
conducted on March 27-30 among 1,007 adult Bulgarians.

According to the sociologists, the BSP is most seriously
affected by concerns about voting amid a pandemic (25 per cent
of BSP supporters expressed strong concern, compared to an
average of 10 per cent nationwide). On the other hand, some BSP
supporters are switching preferences to other anti-government
formations, mostly "Rise Up! Thugs Out!''.

The next two political formations have similar poll results:
There Is Such a People (TISP) gets 12.7 per cent and Movement
for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) 12.5 per cent. The final results
for both parties will be highly dependent on the voter turnout
on April 4. The support for Slavi Trifonov's TISP party is based
 mostly on an emotional, anti-systemic vote by people who are
not particularly interested in politics, which means that they
can easily become active, but can just as easily be demotivated
and choose not to participate because they do not have a special
 stake in the election. According to the analysts, a lower voter
 turnout would place the MRF at an advantage. Alpha Research
says that polls do not take into account the votes cast abroad,
and that the MRF traditionally receives a lot of votes from the
Bulgarian diaspora.

Both Democratic Bulgaria (6.3 per cent) and Rise Up! Thugs Out!
(6 per cent) show a steady increase in support during the
campaign. There is also a difference in the profile of their
supporters. The so-called "urban right-wing" Democratic Bulgaria
 has more loyal voters, especially in the capital and big
cities. The new alliance around Maya Manolova, Rise Up! Thugs
Out!, can count on more votes in the provinces and from
disappointed left-wing voters. In this case, as in the case of
Slavi Trifonov's party, lower political motivation could prove
to be a weakness on Election Day.

The study shows significant dynamics when it comes to the
nationalist parties. For VMRO, Volya-NFSB, Ataka and
Vazrazhdane, the campaign has become a kind of an "internal"
battle for the radical and populist vote, analysts say. With
support of about 4 per cent, VMRO is closest to the electoral
threshold. However, the Volya-NFSB coalition has seen the most
tangible growth as it has almost tripled its support to 3.1 per
cent since the start of the campaign. Vazrazhdane (1.7 per cent)
 and Ataka (1.2 per cent) are also vying for those votes, albeit
 with lower support.

One in ten respondents who have decided to vote have serious
concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic, while 36 per cent have
"some concerns". If these fears prevail on Election Day,
significant shifts in the current electoral picture are
possible. Thus, until the last moment, the virus will hold the
trump card, said Alpha Research.

The survey registered a very slight increase in the declared
turnout, with 51 per cent of permanent residents in Bulgaria
stating that they will vote. On this basis, it is expected that
between 2.6 and 2.8 million people will go to the polls. Such a
development will affect not just the votes for the parties, but
may also cause a shift in their positions, the sociologists
note.

Similarly to lower voter turnout, the continuing vote
fragmentation increases the chances of core parties, while
higher turnout increases those of new political forces relying
on disappointment and protest voting. Six or seven parties have
the potential to get over 4 per cent threshold, but no political
 force will be close to a majority in Parliament, the
sociologists say.

The survey found that the election campaign influenced just
under half of the 450,000 undecided voters of a month ago.
Volya-NFSB, Democratic Bulgaria and Rise Up! Thugs Out!
registered the most tangible increase in support in recent
weeks.

About 25 per cent of firm voters opt for machine voting, while
55.5 per cent prefer the traditional paper ballot. More active
machine voting can be expected in large cities, where the
majority of young and highly educated voters are concentrated.
Among almost all party electorates the preference for paper
ballots prevails. Preferences are split evenly only among the
electorate of Democratic Bulgaria.

***

The Alpha Research study was conducted between March 27 and 30.
It is published on the website of the agency and is funded by
it. The survey involved 1,007 adult citizens from all over the
country. A stratified two-stage sample with a quota on the main
socio-demographic characteristics was used. The information was
gathered through a direct standardized interview conducted on
tablets in the respondents' homes. Alpha Research is responsible
 for the data and interpretation published on its website, but
not for the selective or manipulative use of such data.
According to Art. 205 (para. 1-4) of the Election Code, any
media outlet that uses data from the present survey is obliged
to report the information from this box. RY/DT