Sofia, November 6 (BTA) - With eight days left until the elections for a new Parliament and President, GERB has a comfortable lead on the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) and newcomer Continue the Change has the biggest vote reserve because it is the first choice of people who are determined to vote but have not yet decided whom to support, according to a poll by the Gallup International Balkan agency commissioned by OFFNews.bg. The poll was taken among 1,081 adult respondents between October 23 and 31 through face-to-face interviews.

The sample of respondents is representative of the adult population of Bulgaria and 1 per cent is equal to some 55,000 population.

According to the poll, GERB-UDF would get 24.2 per cent of the votes, the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) 15.7 per cent, Continue the Change 13.7 per cent, There Is Such a People 11.3 per cent, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) 11.1 per cent and Democratic Bulgaria 9.8 per cent. Below the 4 per cent barrier for entry in Parliament are Vuzrazhdane with 3.3 per cent, Rise Up BG! Here We Come! with 3.1 per cent and VMRO with 2.3 per cent. 5.5 per cent would vote for other formations.

GERB remains the leader in the race but there is a must-watch rivalry for the second place between BSP and Continue the Change. BSP prevails at this stage but it remains to be seen how the pandemic and machine voting will affect the behaviour of older voters.

In this poll, 58.2 per cent of the respondents are determined to vote and another 20 per cent will likely vote. A fifth of this total of 78 per cent has not yet decided whom to support.

Among the hesitant, Continue the Change leads with a wide margin on Democratic Bulgaria (24.1 against 15.6 per cent). There Is Such a People and GERB are tied for the third place with 13.5 and 13.4 per cent, respectively. MRF come fourth and BSP fifth.

The Presidential Race

If presidential elections had been held in the last week of October, Rumen Radev's re-election bid would have been supported by 47.6 percent of voters. 25.1 per cent would have voted for his key rival, the GERB-supported Anastas Gerdjikov, 8.5 per cent for MRF leader Mustafa Karadayi, 5.7 per cent for Lozan Panov, who is supported by Democratic Bulgaria, and 3.3 per cent for Vuzrazhdane leader Kostadin Kostadinov. 2.5 percent don't support anybody and 4.8 per cent would have voted for any of the other candidates.

In all likelihood, the way the authorities are handling the health crisis and especially the requirement for a green COVID pass will send the elections to a second round where Radev will face Gerdjikov. The final week of the campaign will be decisive for the current President to secure a victory in the first round, say the Gallup analysts.

The turnout for the presidential elections is expected to be very close to that for the general elections, with 57.1 percent determined to vote (slightly less than the 58.2 percent for Parliament). About a fifth are hesitant but more inclined to voting.

The turnout figures in the poll show that some 3.2 million people will potentially vote. LN/