Sofia, November 11 (BTA) - The Mediana polling agency says that voter turnout will decide whether there will be a run-off presidential election and that it will take a coalition of at least four parties to form a government after the parliamentary elections. Bulgaria is electing President and Parliament on November 14.
The survey was conducted on November 4-8 among 957 people aged 18 or over through a direct standardized interview and is representative of the adult population. Mediana self-financed its research project.
President Rumen Radev, who is seeking a second term, is very close to winning the first round of the elections. This is conditional on voter turnout: at least 50 per cent of voters, or more than 3.35 million Bulgarians, must go to the polls for this to happen. At the time of the poll, voter turnout was predicted at around 3.2 or 3.3 million, but nearly 30 per cent are still undecided, meaning that there is a serious potential for changes in this snapshot, Mediana said.
Anastas Gerdjikov, who was put forward by a nominating committee and is backed by GERB, will be Radev's rival in a possible second round. Movement for Rights and Freedoms leader Mustafa Karadayi would place third and Lozan Panov, backed by Democratic Bulgaria, would come fourth in the first round. The survey found that regardless of any additional votes Gerdjikov may win in the second round, Radev is the strong favourite.
If the presidential elections were held today, Radev would be backed by 48.3 per cent of those determined to vote, Anastas Gerdjikov would win 25.6 per cent of the vote, Mustafa Karadayi 10.3 per cent, Lozan Panov 8.1 per cent, Kostadin Kostadinov (Vazrazhdane party) 3.2 per cent, Luna Yordanova 1.4 per cent, and another candidate 3.1 per cent, Mediana said.
In a possible second round, Radev would win 65.5 per cent and Gerdjikov would be backed by 35.5 per cent of voters.
As to the parliamentary elections, the survey gives GERB an 8 per cent lead due to the strong mobilization and consolidation of its sympathizers. Continue the Change keeps attracting more votes but is unlikely to bridge the gap against GERB in the few days left until November 14. The Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) is third in a tight race with Continue the Change. There Is Such a People (TISP), the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF), and Democratic Bulgaria came with very close results in the 10-12 per cent range. Rise Up BG! Here We Come! was backed by 4.2 per cent of those determined to vote and stands a fair chance of crossing the 4 per cent electoral threshold, said Mediana.
If the parliamentary elections were held today, GERB-UDF would be backed by 25.4 per cent of those determined to vote, Continue the Change 17.3 per cent, BSP for Bulgaria 15.6 per cent, TISP 12.2 per cent, MRF 10.6 per cent, Democratic Bulgaria 9.7 per cent, Rise Up BG! 4.2 per cent, Vazrazhdane 3.1 per cent, and another party 1.9 per cent, the survey found.
Although GERB is the strongest party, its return to power seems unlikely. The parties' plans for possible coalitions apart, at this point GERB is publicly unacceptable as a ruling party. A mere 21 per cent of voters are in favour of seeing it back in power, as against 51 per cent who want a government without GERB, Mediana said.
The formation of a cabinet will be a tall order. The survey found that it would take at least four parties to form a coalition and that each of them would be able to torpedo the formation of a ruling majority and a stable government, the sociologists said.
The survey registered the politicians' approval rating as follows: Rumen Radev 69 per cent, Kiril Petkov and Assen Vassilev (Continue the Change) 51 per cent and 48 per cent respectively, Maya Manolova (Rise Up BG!) 48 per cent, Kornelia Ninova (BSP) 41 per cent, Boyko Borissov (GERB) 39 per cent, Anastas Gerdjikov 35 per cent, Hristo Ivanov (Democratic Bulgaria) 33 per cent, Slavi Trifonov (TISP) 31 per cent, Kostadin Kostadinov 22 per cent, Mustafa Karadayi 19 per cent, and Lozan Panov 17 per cent. DT/DD